I have stated several times on my blog that I believe that Minnesota has cleared a lot of the Shadow Inventory by Short Sales. Still trying to quantify that but finding it difficult to get good data. Most of the data on the Shadow Inventory is speculative in nature, by definition Shadow Inventory are homes that may be foreclosed upon. So that can be speculative by Loan to Value ratios, 30 days late, 60 days or Default. Even at Default stage, a homeowner can still redeem. Also, most of the data is National and not broken down by State, Region or City.
RealtyTrac has some interesting data that may be good news to our local market.
This shows Foreclosure Activity across the nation. I would imagine you could lay the unemployment rates across this map and they would line pretty close to foreclosure activity…
Comparing Minnesota with Wisconsin; I picked Wisconsin because the Packer fans need to be humbled… We are also familiar with Wisconsin being neighbors as well as our populations are fairly comparable. Wisconsin has a population of 5,686,986 and Minnesota 5,303,925.
This one shows us that both Minnesota and Wisconsin have quite a bit of foreclosures. These are “all foreclosures”. RealtyTrac categorizes foreclosures into 3 categories: Pre-Foreclosure, Auction, and REO. Pre-Foreclosure would be notice of default, Auction would be Sheriff’s Sale, REO is the bank has taken it back. This graph shows all three: (Blue=Minnesota, Packer Gold=Wisconsin)
THIS is what I think looks promising for our market. This is the “Pre-Foreclosure” comparison. ( Blue is Minnesota and Packer Gold is Wisconsin…) This would be Default notices.
One possibility on this data, RealtyTrac doesn’t have data on Pre-Foreclosures in Minnesota! hmmm…. I’ll choose to believe their data is accurate for now…
We also seem to be clearing our REO inventory a little better.. Maybe some one with some quick math skills can compare the populations to the REO inventory #’s and compare percentages…
So far, RealtyTrac seems to provide the best information on the local markets. You can view their great data at RealtyTrac.com
We should be getting a national update soon for the 3rd Quarter Shadow Inventory from CoreLogic.
- Shadow inventory falls, expected to continue (georgegmiller.wordpress.com)
- Watching Shadow Inventory of Foreclosures Closely (realestatesa.wordpress.com)
- Quotes: Dawn of the Shadow Inventory! (sf.curbed.com)
- Shadow Inventory Falling (smitherblogs.wordpress.com)
- Shadow Inventory of Homes Improves – S&P (johnmurphyreports.com)
- Shadow inventory improves but still threatens housing recovery (money.cnn.com)
- Foreclosures Down 33 Percent From Last Year (reliantauburn.wordpress.com)