30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage drops, is it the result of The Twist?


I had been posting every business day on the 10 year treasury and the 30 year mortgage since the announcement of Operation Twist.  The reason why I am posting info on the 10 year treasury is that the 30 year fixed rate mortgage tends to track closely. It is not tied directly together, but the 10 year treasury is used as a guide for banks when they buy and sell mortgages.

Earlier this week the 10 year treasury started moving higher.  The 30 year fixed rate followed upwards.  Yesterday I got busy and forgot to track these and sure enough – the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate dropped today.

The 10 year treasury nudged down a bit today as did the 30 year fixed rate mortgage.  The national average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.01%.  This chart below shows the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage compared to the 10 Year Treasury.  The 30 year mortgage rate data is updated as of 9/29/2011, the 10 year treasury is updated as of 9/27/2011 at 2.01.  (today it closed at 1.96)

 

click to enlarge

Now let’s look at where Edina Realty Mortgage Rates are today.

Today’s Mortgage Rates

The current interest rates shown below are based on a purchase of a single-family, primary residence. For current refinance rates, contact us

as of 09/29/2011 03:10 PM Central

Product Interest Rate APR
Conforming1 and FHA1 Loans
30-Year Fixed 4.125% 4.308%
30-Year Fixed FHA 3.750% 4.550%
15-Year Fixed 3.250% 3.566%
7-Year ARM 2.875% 3.180%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.750% 2.908%
Jumbo1 Loans – Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits1
30-Year Fixed 4.375% 4.518%
Equal Housing Lender
I don’t know if the rates will drop further, it is possible I guess.  Many experts believe it will, I am still a little cautious.  The 30 year fixed rate mortgage hasn’t dipped below 4% since it has been tracked by the Feds, so this may be a glass wall that it can’t break through.  Judging by the graph, it appears the spread between the 10 year treasury and the 30 year fixed rate mortgage gets larger.  So the question is how much further does the 10 year treasury have to drop to pull the rate below 4%?  What do you think, post a reply.   It has certainly grabbed my interest again to continue following this.
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