NAR Housing economic Outlook 2011-2012

The National Association of Realtors Economic Outlook is showing some interesting forecasts for 2012.  Keep in mind no one has a crystal ball, but the economists go ahead and make forecasts anyhow.  The great thing about economists is they are usually about as accurate as the weather forecasters, yet I continue to listen to the weather forecast anyhow…

As of October 2011, here is what the economists are currently forecasting for 2012.

It looks like they are forecasting very little change in the unemployment rate, nudging down to 8.6%.  I am particularly interested that they are forecasting the 30 year mortgage rate to inch upwards to 5% by the end of 2011.  Apparently they are not expecting much help from Operation Twist, which I think is accurate.


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Their forecast (above)on Existing Home Sales is showing a fairly steady growth through 2012.  While Housing starts and new construction sales are showing a big jump in the last 2 quarters of 2012.  This is showing % change from a year ago.

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The above chart is kind of frightening, take a look at the Real Disposable Income line.  I didn’t realize I had any disposable income and their forecast is showing it is going to get worse!  The GDP is showing a forecast of pretty flat growth and the CPI showing flattening mid 2012.  I would disagree with that, but I am no economist…  I would expect the CPI to increase steadily throughout 2012…

These graphs are just a couple snapshots from their Forecast.  For more information on their Economic Outlook, check out their data here.






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