Hennepin County Foreclosure Risk Scores by City and Zip, how does your zip code rank?

Here is some good information on foreclosures and delinquency by zip code.  Once again it is not in terms of actual numbers, but rather by “ranking” or “score”.  So it doesn’t give us a number of housing units that may be hitting the market in the shadow inventory.

I stumbled upon a website called Foreclosure-Response.org   Foreclosure-Response.org offers resources intended to help states and localities respond to the foreclosure crisis.

Explanation of the Data they have compiled:

To help states and communities make informed decisions about how to allocate and spend their resources for foreclosure prevention and neighborhood stabilization, the Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC) has developed datasets with foreclosure “risk scores” at the ZIP Code level within each state and also within each metropolitan area. These scores incorporate measures of subprime lending, foreclosures, delinquency, and vacancies.

…In the Intrametropolitan ZIP Code level Excel workbooks provides the foreclosure risk score for ZIP Codes by metropolitan area; this score allows users to look at the relative foreclosure risk of all ZIP Codes in a metropolitan area. The highest risk ZIP Code in the metro area is assigned a score of 100 and all other ZIP Codes are assigned a score relative to the highest risk ZIP Code.

LISC cannot provide loan and foreclosure counts at this level of geography because these estimates are based on proprietary data. Therefore, in addition to the foreclosure risk scores, the table contains summary scores for each of the subprime, foreclosure, and delinquent loan components. The scores indicate relative risk of ZIP Codes on each component individually. For example, the subprime component score is only based on the number of subprime loans and percentage of all loans that are subprime. The highest risk ZIP Code in terms of subprime loans in each metro area receives a score of 100 and a ZIP Code with a score of 50 is estimated to have about half the risk level.

So I downloaded their data set for the Minneapolis/St Paul area by Zip Code, called their IntraMetroRiskScores.   Again, it doesn’t give the actual numbers of loans but it shows the zip codes/cities risk  score compared against the highest risk zip code in the area.  In the Minneapolis / St Paul metro area, zip code 55441 is the highest risk area and therefore scored at 100.  So the other areas are ranked against that benchmark.

click to enlarge

The above were all listed under Minneapolis, and then the Zip Codes.  I see Plymouth and Bloomington are listed above by zip code.  Below were also listed by Zip Code but were also broken down by City, so I charted those separately because it easier to identify by name rather than zip code…

click to enlarge

This data is a little out of date being from March 2011, but it still paints a good picture of the regions foreclosure risk by zip code.   I did read on their website that they do not publish the actual numbers of loans at risk of foreclosure because it is proprietary information.   If we had a ballpark figure of loans at risk of foreclosure, we could use these figures to calculate how many potential homes could hit the market in each zip code.  Once we have that we could run some absorption rate calculations to figure out the impact on the market and make some guesses on price declines.

If you are interested in other areas, got to their website to get the data set.  They have every zip code in the Country.


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