Tag Archives: Minneapolis

Map: Where Minnesotans Are Moving to


Forbes has an online interactive map showing migration around the Country.  Below is an image I got when I clicked on Hennepin County, MN.  The red lines are showing people moving out of Hennepin County and black lines are showing people moving in.  About the data, they are saying their data comes from the IRS and is for the year 2008.  I know 2008 sounds like really old data, but if you remember the twin cities losing population post – that is when we saw the decline in population and the height of our unemployment in the Twin Cities.  Reversing these trends requires job growth in our region.  I would like to see more recent data also, but this is some really interesting information – click on the image to go to their interactive chart and click around the Country to see if you begin to see a pattern.

click on map to link to Forbes interactive map

 

 

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Twin Cities Housing Market update. Week Ending Oct 08, 2011


Another great weekly housing market update from Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.

We continue to grind away at a faster pace on our inventory.  This week’s year-over-year stats:

Change in New Listings:      -13%  

Change in Pending Sales:   +48.3%

Change in Inventory:            -21.0%

We are now down to 22,434 listings on the market.

View Full Weekly Market Update Report

 

 

 

 

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Hennepin County Foreclosure Risk Scores by City and Zip, how does your zip code rank?


Here is some good information on foreclosures and delinquency by zip code.  Once again it is not in terms of actual numbers, but rather by “ranking” or “score”.  So it doesn’t give us a number of housing units that may be hitting the market in the shadow inventory.

I stumbled upon a website called Foreclosure-Response.org   Foreclosure-Response.org offers resources intended to help states and localities respond to the foreclosure crisis.

Explanation of the Data they have compiled:

To help states and communities make informed decisions about how to allocate and spend their resources for foreclosure prevention and neighborhood stabilization, the Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC) has developed datasets with foreclosure “risk scores” at the ZIP Code level within each state and also within each metropolitan area. These scores incorporate measures of subprime lending, foreclosures, delinquency, and vacancies.

…In the Intrametropolitan ZIP Code level Excel workbooks provides the foreclosure risk score for ZIP Codes by metropolitan area; this score allows users to look at the relative foreclosure risk of all ZIP Codes in a metropolitan area. The highest risk ZIP Code in the metro area is assigned a score of 100 and all other ZIP Codes are assigned a score relative to the highest risk ZIP Code.

LISC cannot provide loan and foreclosure counts at this level of geography because these estimates are based on proprietary data. Therefore, in addition to the foreclosure risk scores, the table contains summary scores for each of the subprime, foreclosure, and delinquent loan components. The scores indicate relative risk of ZIP Codes on each component individually. For example, the subprime component score is only based on the number of subprime loans and percentage of all loans that are subprime. The highest risk ZIP Code in terms of subprime loans in each metro area receives a score of 100 and a ZIP Code with a score of 50 is estimated to have about half the risk level.

So I downloaded their data set for the Minneapolis/St Paul area by Zip Code, called their IntraMetroRiskScores.   Again, it doesn’t give the actual numbers of loans but it shows the zip codes/cities risk  score compared against the highest risk zip code in the area.  In the Minneapolis / St Paul metro area, zip code 55441 is the highest risk area and therefore scored at 100.  So the other areas are ranked against that benchmark.

click to enlarge

The above were all listed under Minneapolis, and then the Zip Codes.  I see Plymouth and Bloomington are listed above by zip code.  Below were also listed by Zip Code but were also broken down by City, so I charted those separately because it easier to identify by name rather than zip code…

click to enlarge

This data is a little out of date being from March 2011, but it still paints a good picture of the regions foreclosure risk by zip code.   I did read on their website that they do not publish the actual numbers of loans at risk of foreclosure because it is proprietary information.   If we had a ballpark figure of loans at risk of foreclosure, we could use these figures to calculate how many potential homes could hit the market in each zip code.  Once we have that we could run some absorption rate calculations to figure out the impact on the market and make some guesses on price declines.

If you are interested in other areas, got to their website to get the data set.  They have every zip code in the Country.

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Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Update. Week Ending Oct 1, 2011


Still heading the right direction!  The 30 year fixed rate mortgage dipped below 4% for the first time ever last week which should hopefully improve the market conditions.

For the Week Ending October 1st we saw a continued weaning of inventory with fewer year over year new listings and increased Pending sales.

New Listings  decreased 21.0% to 1,219

Pending Sales increased to 32.7% to 926

Inventory decreased 22.8% to 23,177

The inventory will continue to come down in it’s seasonal pattern, but year over year we are still down.  If you look at the chart below you can see that we are in the range of the 2005 inventory levels.

I am going to stick my neck out on this one and “Call it”.  We have just entered “Balanced Market” territory.  We have now dipped below 7 month supply which puts us on the upper edge of a Balanced Market.   As far as staying in this territory is whole other matter…

In a Balanced Market we should see sale prices holding closer to the asking prices giving us some price stability.  To see prices increase we are going to need demand to kick up a few notches to bring us into the Seller’s Market of 1-4 month supply.  But after the last few years, this is great news.

View Full Report from Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors

 

 




					

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Greater MSP organization, bringing economic growth to the Twin Cities region


Apparently we are not the first to realize that our region’s employment situation has been grim and the repercussions of losing jobs can be devastating including population decline.

There is an organization that has been created to try to promote and bring employers to the Twin Cities metro area.  It is called Greater MSP.  

My first reaction to this was “oh no, not another ‘do nothing’ organization siphoning tax dollars”.  As I read further into it, this may hold some merit.  They have managed to pull together a pretty impressive board of directors to manage the organization; at least their credentials are a lot better than mine.  There are a number of  business leaders on this board that should know what is needed and how to achieve it.  The organizations visions and goals line up with what I believe our region needs to focus on:

Vision for a Brighter Future for All

The GREATER MSP Partnership is committed to stimulating economic growth and prosperity in the Minnesota’s 13-county Minneapolis Saint Paul metro area. As a public-private partnership funded by charitable donations, its vision is to be a value-added resource to all economic development organizations in the Greater MSP region. Its goal: a brighter future for all Twin Cities residents and businesses.

Strategic Direction

The Partnership works with dozens of economic development partners at the state and regional levels. It provides vision, strategy, resources and staff support to governments and organizations involved with job creation, regional marketing, business recruitment and business retention. Specifically, the GREATER MSP Partnership leads or partners with existing organizations to:

  • Set a strategic vision for regional economic development
  • Define and guide a tactical economic development agenda
  • Brand and market the Greater MSP region to internal and external audiences
  • Retain and expand current businesses in the region
  • Attract new businesses to the region
  • Connect businesses with local resources and incentives

 

I heard about this organization from Minneapolis St Paul Business Journal that wrote a short article about the new organization and their kick-off event coming up.

The organization will be holding a big kick-off event Tuesday evening at the Pantages Theater in downtown Minneapolis where invited guests and media will learn more about the region’s new “brand and marketing campaign” and hear about how Greater MSP will help recruit companies to the region.

Read Full Article

Let’s hope their efforts produce results, our region needs economic growth.  Take a moment to visit their website and let’s support their efforts any way we can.  They are running all this  from Charitable Donations according to their website.

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2nd Quarter Mortgage Delinquency rates for Minnesota, our Shadow Inventory


Believe it or not I have been struggling to find good data to show what kind of potential Shadow Inventory we may be seeing down the road for Minnesota, and more specifically the Twin Cities metro region.  The Shadow Inventory is theoretical in nature and estimates vary greatly, so trustworthy sources are important as well.

I was able to find some information from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve for the 2nd Quarter of 2011.  I would imagine the 3rd Quarter should be coming out sometime soon and I will keep on a lookout for that report.

In the meantime, I will share some of the information in this 2nd Quarter 2011 report on Minnesota.  The report was sort of lacking on details for the Twin Cities region, but it is a start…   I am in search of actual numbers of homes or mortgages, so if you happen to know where those can be found please let me know.

The highest levels of foreclosures are just north of the Twin Cities in Isanti and Mille Lacs Counties.

 

Below breaks it down by Zip code, which is little more helpful.  Hennepin County seems to have the highest concentration in the northeast corner of the County.  What I am really interested in,  getting my hands are the raw numbers of mortgages by Zip Code…  Haven’t found them yet, but this is at least getting closer.

This chart is a little more telling on the what we might expect in the way of Shadow Inventory for all of Minnesota.  It appears to be coming down substantially from last year, but still a fairly large wave.   Judging by the national reports, this has probably come down even further in the 3rd quarter.

 Several questions remain:  How many of  these delinquencies will end up in foreclosure? Are they are already for sale on the MLS and already factored into our supply?   And, Will this wave continue to shrink?

I guess like any good research, it leaves us with more questions than we started with….

click to view full report

 

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Minneapolis/St.Paul MN, Twin Cities Unemployment Rate August 2011 – released 9/28/2011


The Metropolitan Area unemployment rates were released by the St Louis Federal Reserve this evening for August 2011.

We know the State of Minnesota held at 7.2% unemployment rate for August, but now we can see how our local real estate market is doing with the unemployment rate.

For August 1st, 2011 the unemployment for Minneapolis, St-Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA  (aka The Twin Cities) took a pretty significant drop from 7.4% to 6.7%.   Unfortunately there is no information suggesting why that drop took place.  A couple of theories are: Minnesota added 5,800 jobs, a large number would be in the Twin Cities and that there was a spike in unemployment due to the State shutdown.  These were explanations given for the State unemployment figures, and I just figure they would hold true for the Twin Cities…

Headed the right direction!  Long ways to go to get back below 5%, not even to mention 2% like we saw in the late 1990’s.     This is a good reduction and we should be happy for small gains.  Let’s hope for many more reports this direction.

As regular readers, you already know that the number one thing hurting our real estate market is the lack of jobs.  That is why I am watching the unemployment rates.

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