Tag Archives: The Twist

10 year treasury moves up and the 30 Year mortgage rates are up


This is pretty interesting because this is the other direction than what the experts thought Operation Twist would have on the market.  John Murphy pointed this out earlier on his post, then tonight I saw the St Louis Fed had updated their 30year mortgage average rates.

There are 2 things I find really interesting here but can’t explain.

1) the spread gets larger between the mortgage rates and the 10 year treasury the lower the treasury goes.

2) the 10 year treasury is going up, when most thought it would go down as a result of Operation Twist.

Note: the 30 year mortgage is updated as of 10/13/2011.    The 10 year treasury is updated as of 10/11/2011 at 2.18%

Just curious what Edina Realty Mortgage rates are today…  Looks like they are heading up.

Today’s Mortgage Rates

The current interest rates shown below are based on a purchase of a single-family, primary residence. For current refinance rates, contact us

as of 10/13/2011 09:15 AM Central

Product Interest Rate APR
Conforming1 and FHA1 Loans
30-Year Fixed 4.250% 4.434%
30-Year Fixed FHA 3.750% 4.550%
15-Year Fixed 3.375% 3.692%
7-Year ARM 3.000% 3.238%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.750% 2.908%
Jumbo1 Loans – Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits1
30-Year Fixed 4.500% 4.644%

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30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage drops, is it the result of The Twist?


I had been posting every business day on the 10 year treasury and the 30 year mortgage since the announcement of Operation Twist.  The reason why I am posting info on the 10 year treasury is that the 30 year fixed rate mortgage tends to track closely. It is not tied directly together, but the 10 year treasury is used as a guide for banks when they buy and sell mortgages.

Earlier this week the 10 year treasury started moving higher.  The 30 year fixed rate followed upwards.  Yesterday I got busy and forgot to track these and sure enough – the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate dropped today.

The 10 year treasury nudged down a bit today as did the 30 year fixed rate mortgage.  The national average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.01%.  This chart below shows the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage compared to the 10 Year Treasury.  The 30 year mortgage rate data is updated as of 9/29/2011, the 10 year treasury is updated as of 9/27/2011 at 2.01.  (today it closed at 1.96)

 

click to enlarge

Now let’s look at where Edina Realty Mortgage Rates are today.

Today’s Mortgage Rates

The current interest rates shown below are based on a purchase of a single-family, primary residence. For current refinance rates, contact us

as of 09/29/2011 03:10 PM Central

Product Interest Rate APR
Conforming1 and FHA1 Loans
30-Year Fixed 4.125% 4.308%
30-Year Fixed FHA 3.750% 4.550%
15-Year Fixed 3.250% 3.566%
7-Year ARM 2.875% 3.180%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.750% 2.908%
Jumbo1 Loans – Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits1
30-Year Fixed 4.375% 4.518%
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I don’t know if the rates will drop further, it is possible I guess.  Many experts believe it will, I am still a little cautious.  The 30 year fixed rate mortgage hasn’t dipped below 4% since it has been tracked by the Feds, so this may be a glass wall that it can’t break through.  Judging by the graph, it appears the spread between the 10 year treasury and the 30 year fixed rate mortgage gets larger.  So the question is how much further does the 10 year treasury have to drop to pull the rate below 4%?  What do you think, post a reply.   It has certainly grabbed my interest again to continue following this.

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Mortgage Rates and Operation Twist – Day 6


Well, it looks like the Feds plan to lower rates may have backfired.  It is probably a bit early to make that conclusion, but the trend is beginning to point that direction.

Today the stock market rallied again pushing the Dow up about 146 point to close near 11,190.  The 10 Year Treasury went up 0.1120 (+5.88%) to close at 2.016.   That is trending higher which will push the mortgage rates higher if it continues.

Today’s Mortgage Rates from Edina Realty jumped about 1/4% on the 30 year fixed conventional today, probably due to yesterdays gain in the 10 Year Treasury.

Today’s Mortgage Rates

The current interest rates shown below are based on a purchase of a single-family, primary residence. For current refinance rates, contact us

as of 09/27/2011 02:38 PM Central

Product Interest Rate APR
Conforming1 and FHA1 Loans
30-Year Fixed 4.250% 4.434%
30-Year Fixed FHA 3.750% 4.550%
15-Year Fixed 3.250% 3.566%
7-Year ARM 2.875% 3.180%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.750% 2.908%
Jumbo1 Loans – Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits1
30-Year Fixed 4.375% 4.518%

Equal Housing Lender


There is a great article about The Twist from HousingWire:  Dallas Fed Chief Fisher not buying Operation Twist

 

Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallasis sticking to his contrarian view on the Federal Open Market Committee’s “Operation Twist” plan, saying it could be a confidence and jobs killer…

…”Implicitly, the program may also lift short-term sales, albeit mildly given the expectation that rates at the short end will remain at exceptionally low levels through mid-2013,” he said.

Fisher, along with Charles Plosser, president of the Philly Fed, and Narayana Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed, once again dissented to the latest FOMC policy decisions, marking the most opposition on the committee in nearly two decades.

Read Full Article

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Mortgage Rates after the Twist, 09/26/2011 (day 5)


Mortgage

Image by Rev Dan Catt via Flickr

Still watching the 10 Year Treasury to see if there is any indication that rates might come down.  Today the Dow soared 272 points to close over 11,000.  This is great news by itself…  

The 10 Year Treasury rose 5.31% closing at 1.9040.  Keep in mind, even though it increased – it is still extremely low.  

The 10 Year Treasury is heading in the wrong direction to bring mortgage rates even lower, but as you can see the 10 year Treasury moves a lot more than the mortgage rates do.  The 10 Year treasury may yet drop and bring the mortgage rates down.  Time will tell.  As of today, the 10 year treasury is going up and the mortgage rates have not changed:  (oh bummer, we appear to be stuck at record low interest rates.)

Today’s Mortgage Rates

The current interest rates shown below are based on a purchase of a single-family, primary residence. For current refinance rates, contact us

as of 09/26/2011 09:58 AM Central

Product Interest Rate APR
Conforming1 and FHA1 Loans
30-Year Fixed 4.000% 4.181%
30-Year Fixed FHA 3.750% 4.550%
15-Year Fixed 3.125% 3.440%
7-Year ARM 2.750% 3.122%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.750% 2.908%
Jumbo1 Loans – Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits1
30-Year Fixed 4.250% 4.392%
 
 

 

I’ll keep tracking this for a while longer, or at least until I get bored with it!  

 

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Mortgage Rates September 22, 2011, The day after The Twist.


Yesterday the Fed announced their big plans to target the Long term securities which should have an effect on the Mortgage Rates. (The Twist)

Most are expecting mortgage rates to go down a bit, the question is how much.  My opinion is that the 30 year mortgage may drop by 1/8%.  I could be wrong, I am basing this from history when the Fed tried this in the 1960s with little success.

*Disclosure: I am not a mortgage banker or any kind of financial market guru – just giving my opinion – however wrong it may be.  So don’t take this as any sort of financial advice.

The markets were open today and it was an ugly scene, the Dow dropped by 391 after a big drop yesterday.  Fears of the European financial mess is what is reported to have sent stocks tumbling today.  The 10 year bond dropped .16 today, which is a good indicator on the mortgage rates.  Keep in mind, mortgage rates will trend along the 10 year treasury but not follow identically.  The 10 year treasury will need to stay at a level a while before mortgage rates will trend to that level.

This graph is from the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank and was updated today.

The Red Line indicate the 10 Year Treasury and the Blue Line indicates the 30 Year Mortgage average rate.

The data for the 30 Year Mortgage is below.  There is no change yet, but there will be a lag time involved:

2011-09-01   4.22
2011-09-08   4.12
2011-09-15   4.09
2011-09-22   4.09

The data for the 10 Year  Treasury is below.  The data only goes up to 9/20 now, but it last traded at 1.715 (9/22)

2011-09-01   2.15
2011-09-02   2.02
2011-09-05      .
2011-09-06   1.98
2011-09-07   2.05
2011-09-08   2.00
2011-09-09   1.93
2011-09-12   1.94
2011-09-13   2.00
2011-09-14   2.03
2011-09-15   2.09
2011-09-16   2.08
2011-09-19   1.97
2011-09-20   1.95

Looks to me like it is very likely we will see the 30 year mortgage rate dip a bit.  Don’t know by how much, but my guess is it may dip just below 4% on the 30 year fixed. 

As of Today,  Edina Realty Mortgage Rates are lower than the national average of 30 year mortgages: 

Today’s Mortgage Rates

The current interest rates shown below are based on a purchase of a single-family, primary residence. For current refinance rates, contact us

as of 09/22/2011 09:51 AM Central

Product Interest Rate APR
Conforming1 and FHA1 Loans
30-Year Fixed 4.000% 4.181%
30-Year Fixed FHA 3.750% 4.550%
15-Year Fixed 3.000% 3.314%
7-Year ARM 2.750% 3.122%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.750% 2.908%
Jumbo1 Loans – Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits1
30-Year Fixed 4.250% 4.392%

Bookmark this link to check Edina Realty Mortgage Rates at any time.

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