Believe it or not I have been struggling to find good data to show what kind of potential Shadow Inventory we may be seeing down the road for Minnesota, and more specifically the Twin Cities metro region. The Shadow Inventory is theoretical in nature and estimates vary greatly, so trustworthy sources are important as well.
I was able to find some information from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve for the 2nd Quarter of 2011. I would imagine the 3rd Quarter should be coming out sometime soon and I will keep on a lookout for that report.
In the meantime, I will share some of the information in this 2nd Quarter 2011 report on Minnesota. The report was sort of lacking on details for the Twin Cities region, but it is a start… I am in search of actual numbers of homes or mortgages, so if you happen to know where those can be found please let me know.
The highest levels of foreclosures are just north of the Twin Cities in Isanti and Mille Lacs Counties.
Below breaks it down by Zip code, which is little more helpful. Hennepin County seems to have the highest concentration in the northeast corner of the County. What I am really interested in, getting my hands are the raw numbers of mortgages by Zip Code… Haven’t found them yet, but this is at least getting closer.
This chart is a little more telling on the what we might expect in the way of Shadow Inventory for all of Minnesota. It appears to be coming down substantially from last year, but still a fairly large wave. Judging by the national reports, this has probably come down even further in the 3rd quarter.
Several questions remain: How many of these delinquencies will end up in foreclosure? Are they are already for sale on the MLS and already factored into our supply? And, Will this wave continue to shrink?
I guess like any good research, it leaves us with more questions than we started with….
click to view full report
Related articles
- Delinquencies Rise, Foreclosures Fall in Latest MBA Mortgage Delinquency Survey (craigkamman.wordpress.com)
- Shadow inventory falls, expected to continue (georgegmiller.wordpress.com)
- Mortgage Delinquencies Increase (blogs.wsj.com)
- Shadow Inventory of Homes Improves – S&P (johnmurphyreports.com)
craigkamman 
Good report Craig. Let me know if you find more specific data on homes going in to foreclosure.
Thanks. Will do.
Craig,
We’re going to call you the Sherlock Holmes of the “Shadow Inventory.” My guess is companies like RealTrac and Corelogic have the info, it just costs big money to get the current up to date data. The data they release to the public is either older or “tease” to get you to subscribe to their services.
They do have the info, and yes they charge for it. They are getting their info from somewhere though. I doubt that they call up every bank to create a database, they are extracting the data and re-packaging it.
I have a good idea which source has it, but I need to be a member of some mortgage broker association to access it. Know any friends high up the food chain in the banking industry?
No I don’t. I think Corelogic collects a lot of their data from the counties. Corelogic is in dispute with NAR about their numbers, I remember reading an article about how the different county numbers weren’t matching the NAR’s extrapolated numbers non-MLS sales. I wish I wasn’t so busy I would help you dig into this more, because this something I’ve always wondered about.
I guess that goes to show us that no matter where we get these “estimates”, they are only “estimates” – so margin of error is going to be huge.
Keep your eye open, and talk to some of your mortgage bankers you do business with. One of them will have access to some industry figures.
Hey Craig,
If I dig something up, then I might qualify as your sidekick “Watson.”